I love to learn and I love numbers.
I hate the NBA and hate to watch NBA basketball, but I love to play Fantasy Basketball which Dale got me into 3 years ago. I love it because of the Moneyball like effect in the statistics that can be optimized.
It's funny that at times I don't even know the players on my team, and get surprised when I see them and think they don't look like guys who could play that well.
1. The graph below shows how you would expect to draft a team vs some chosen rankings system, that rates the top players versus the average players. The goal is to get as many above average players on your team as possible.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvCdVR-zKHfvi-UJTxJB_CBHI8ffRc5fzv98vi3ak_EFoVYvh-doTCXVbx7VP8yeoRv1Ee2X75-XRpsEnC0Leafh0o8UPodMLZtsI_-73u85-m2BZwO3W1gBFeN0lNS7jEPNTYALqZxsWN/s400/Blog1.jpg)
2. However, when you look at the player value ratings (a mathmatical calculation I do to rate each player vs an average player) the Yahoo Rankings show a wide spread vs the exact data they used to make those rankings.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCJzQ2yT3TYTHLvz99S-OdNdEC5QZZCIyF7TxNPs7gBZqwvbzTzdD8HPFSLF9JMYsVs55NgAmTxSwTEUFBRj-Fd0xZ9-siNDl5AZxXaYmpKf4mzDB5Ygef4IIkTDLw4TnOALQhpTA-T_91/s400/Blog2.jpg)
3. The top half of that spread are players who are underrated versus the rankings, the players on the bottom half are overrated versus the rankings. I try to use this to my advantage to get as many underrated players as possible.
The Red circles are players I kept from last years team and the Blue circles are the players I drafted this year (mostly underrated).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWzsW5V8y0kh242Nu6GA-BfQSChlSWtcYKvQKe0_huUNITnQ4hz3PHVQujBvh92Vh2KyxCHGum24ZikKebYejJ6SWTFnmYDgz_SUavMTxE78gxntOo2Xijz-ko2hN0wNGk_orgsiHU5tS4/s400/Blog3.jpg)
4. Despite taking over a very bad team, I have slowly improved my team year after year from 10th place in the Regular Season to 1st last year. (Billy Beane and I agree 1 week Playoffs are a little bit of a crap shoot that can't be predicted).
The best compliment I got last year was someone in the league said: "It's surprising how good the team is, when no one on the roster scares you."
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgquYhG9JDn6AKsOvq7HBzN1UlVa_M8O8Tb2yvbbogFmu89GZFRB86xRjRHD21oGZo0oG84sb74cD31vF1myCbdsdrnTkycKx74YKPLGvLTMko0WIkW_f-BTibTJPW9dCyFzmVnQ-wrvS62/s400/Blog4.jpg)
5. Those are the basics, but to get to intermediate team management I focus on the leverage plots of each statistical category.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnxJdPBfWMBtRCJBxbM4909XK7JbNEc5e3PYS7RQ1NI3uUOGF7Ya-XC7APgWkz3_eankv7q6JVVP8YJI8v3an6uZd8oARvZslB9Vw-LZEq0TDYHbhs021j_kMp40utfqIkrYJSApzVVS2g/s400/Blog5.jpg)
The Blue line is the plot of Points scored. It shows the very best player will only score 2 times as many points as the average player. Therefore, you would need 4 or 5 of the top scorers to be sure you could beat any other team any given week.
The Pink line shows the same plot for Blocks. A less sexy category, but the best players can get 5 times as many blocks as the average player. Therefore, if you have 2 of the top blockers in the league you should be able to win blocks every week.
Sadly, the season just started and my favorite part is already over.
Luckily, I use the same approach for Baseball which is only 6 months away.