Moneyball is a great book. If you aren't a baseball fan it may be tough to get through, but has so many lessons for business. I guess the best way to sum it up is there are so many inefficiencies in popular opinion, that if you can identify and find hidden value you will succeed beyond those who can't.
A great example that (even though I benefit from this) boggles my mind is how the Celtics could have made a couple "equal value" trades and go from one of the worst teams in the past 15 years to having the best record in the NBA.
But I digress to American Idol. How is it possible that even after hours of free airtime and hype, only a couple idol winners have actually produced any form of a career? Most years at work we have an American Idol pool, similar to Survivor (which died) pick some Idols and you get points for each week they stay.
This week I was offered a bet by our Idol pool organizer that really got me thinking (thanks Henley). He would offer me the eventual American Idol winner (with months of hype and a big record contract) vs Josiah Leming (who didn't make the top 24), bigger career wins. I didn't take the bet.
My thoughts on Josiah were:
1. He is talented and different, kind of like Cold Play.
2. He gets annoying and cries too much.
3. Maybe not mature enough yet.
Apparently free from the Idol machine, he is leveraging his 80/20 time on idol into building his own independent following on MySpace music. He writes his own songs (anyone picture Kady Malloy doing that?), has over an album worth of material he created and plans to tour this summer.
Here he is on Ellen:
Meanwhile, the Idol hopefuls are stuck on the show until May, then they have to tour for a year to make money for the Corporation, then some will get signed and forced into some pop mold by record companies who think they know music better than those who consume it.
Case in point: Carly Smithson (Hennessy) when she was signed, does this seem like her or a big corporation vision for her?
How could people successful in the music business really think there were 12 guys more talented than Josiah?
(Quick name the 6 guys that were kicked off?)
(Anyone want to buy any of their albums?)
I think this is good news, there is a theory that the stock market is 100% efficient. All the info available is immediately priced into the stock. I don't believe that and I see how inefficient the business world is at work and in sports. It gives me confidence that if you know what you are doing and don't get caught up there are endless opportunities out there to explore.
PS Does anyone think our methods are efficient for picking the leader of our country? Or even worse how me make decisions on how to run the country?
1 comment:
I don't think there is any doubt that Josiah has talent, and I believe people root for the under dog so hell get his 15 mins of fame I bet. I am impressed with his song writing, while not quite great, you can hear that there is something in there. I think he will do well to have some professional help writing songs because he always has a few spots in there that make you cringe, taking a possible decent song and making it seem weak.
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