Thursday, October 2, 2008

Bailout

I have no idea how changing the AMT rules or adjusting the tax cap on rum imports will help the bailout...but it's in the plan that passed the Senate.

The bigger issue is there is no bailout that will fix the economy quickly. And it will not address those who cannot afford their current homes, which will continue to hurt the economy for a while. I think the bailout plan needs to allow those who can't afford their current loans to switch to a fixed loan at no cost. That is the only hope of them being able to keep their homes and no hurt the economy.
There is no sense in placing blame, some were sold bum loans from greedy banks, others over extended themselves thinking house values will make them rich quickly. To Dale's point, their money is now tied up in a house at a lower value than they paid, and it prevents them from doing other things to help the economy.

There are 3 players in this.

The Lending Banks who are about to fail because these bad sub prime loans are preventing them from loaning new money or even staying in business. They are making this worse by not lending new money to people with good credit who could help the economy grow.

The owners of sub prime loans, who can't afford their mortgage especially since many are ARMs or Interest only and about to increase. They are making it worse by not making payments or defaulting on loans.

The rest of us who are the real victims, who just want it to be over to fix the economy while keeping the banks open to keep our retirements safe. We are making it worse by panicing and taking out money out of the banks, leaving them less money to loan out or keep them in business.

What the Bailout would have to do to fix our behaviors that are making the situation worse:
1. To help the majority of us, the bailout would have to restore confidence that the banks will be OK or are protected. This will prevent the majority of us from making a run on the bank and keep our retirements safe (for those in mostly bonds, the stock market will have to wait for the economy). Really anything that prevents the bank from failing should restore enough confidence to prevent a run on the banks.

2. To help out the Banks, the bailout would have to stop people from taking money out of the banks AND free them up from these bad loans to allow them to lend people new money for cars, credit cards etc.

There is nothing I have heard currently that will help those who can't afford their homes. These people will continue to hurt the economy for a long time because all of their income is tied up in the mortgage vs being able to contribute to the economy.
The economy will not turn around quickly until these people get help OR are left behind as the rest of the economy will eventually start to grow again without them after a painful recession. Either way house values should not increase until after the economy and stock market start to grow.

All this being said, I do not agree with the bailout being funded 100% by taxpayers. I heard an idea early on of the Gov't using taxpayer money for the bailout, then issue bonds to cover it so effectively only those who opt to buy those bonds (hopefully at decent rates charged to the banks) pay for the bailout. I like that idea better than throwing tax money only at the issue.

2 comments:

Karen said...

this is rude probably, but it irratates me that i have to essentially bail out all the idiots and greedy banks around me for wrecking the economy. I hear you loud and clear that the bond way of doing this is better than the tax way of doing it.

Anonymous said...

I think it is a great gut check for people on freedom vs regulation.

There is no such thing as a free market. The market is allowed to operate within the boundaries set by laws and regulation. Then it freely optimizes within those conditions, even if that leads to a crisis.

Freedom, freedom, freedom means being free to buy a house you can't afford or sell a risky loan for profits. Only when it affects everyone do we question this.

When we bought our house, I probably would have been mad if I had been required to show more proof of finances or take a personal finance class, but that may be the new world of mortgages from now on.

I do feel bad for those who can't afford their homes, in a normal recession we lose a lot of jobs but hopefully they come back. I don't know how to fix housing when so much is tied up in property away from the economy.

It seems crazy to me that in 2008 in the US, people, even coworkers worry about gas, energy and college.

It'll interesting in 10 years for the heath care cost crisis, then again in 20-30 for social security.

Dave